Concerns raised over alternative vote system – Dumfries and Galloway Standard
September 16, 2010
Concerns raised over alternative vote system – Dumfries and Galloway Standard.
If the 1997 Welsh referendum had been held beside the General Election, the NO side would have won comfortably
September 13, 2010
So why does Lord Elis-Thomas support holding the AV referendum at the same time as next year’s Welsh Assembly General Election? The Non Voters in the referendum were 2-1 against the Assembly so the smallest increase in turnout would have meant no Assembly and no job for Lord Elis-Thomas its Presiding Officer. Combining major referendums like these with elections can change the result as it would have in Wales 1997.
Thoughts from the Train: is the Yes to AV campaign a distraction?
September 7, 2010
Liberal Bureaucracy: Thoughts from the Train: is the Yes to AV campaign a distraction?.
No musical chairs campaigning in May 2011
September 7, 2010
Denis MacShane MP is Labour MP for Rotherham and a former minister writes
The referendum is proposed for the same day as the important Scottish, Welsh and big city elections next May. Parliament should reject this. A sound principle in countries where referendums are more common is that they are separate independent consultations and not mixed up with elections of individual candidates to run Scotland, Wales, Manchester or Bristol. It would be bizarre to be campaigning in the morning for the Tories or Labour to run a city and then in the afternoon there is a musical chairs as bitter foes make common cause for or against AV.
The Commons galvanised | Magazine | Progress.
The BBC against holding elections & referendums on same day in 2002
July 27, 2010
In 2002 ,The Government considered holding a referendum on the euro at the same time as the devolved General elections in Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland but were warned against doing so by the BBC Chief Political Advisor who said it would make the job of the broadcasters to provide impartial balance in both elections and referendum “impossible” and was demeaning to Scotland, Wales and NI.
The problem is the Broadcasting regime for an election has a long established multi party political basis in contrast to a referendum conducted on a 50:50 basis between two sides.
“True Wales” wants the 40% quota discredited in Scotland
February 12, 2010
True Wales also believes that, in order to achieve a democratic result, there should be a requirement that at least 40% of all registered voters consent in the 2011 referendum to the transfer of primary lawmaking powers from Westminster to the Welsh Assembly in Cardiff. The catch is registered. On the turnout of the last election it would mean that YES has to win over 80% of the cast votes something that rarely happens in referendums – in the free world at least. This reasonable sounding proposal is an attempt to rig the referendum just as was done in the Scottish referendum of 1979. It simply makes NON voters into NO voters. Ban the proposal in the name of good referendum practice.
Irish plan to run Lisbon referendum with an Election
February 13, 2009
This is an old trick. Refendums on major issues split across party lines so this is an attempt to dragoon their supporters in behind the Party line. There are difficulties for broadcasters who one moment represent parties for the general election then a moment later have to find a 50:50 balance between the two sides in a referendums often with participants changing sides.
The Border Poll: How Ahern holds the key
August 7, 2002
THE issue of a border poll last came up at a serious level almost 20 years ago. but then secretary of state Jim Prior finally decided against a repeat of the exercise held 10 years earlier. He said recent elections had shown a large majority wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom and a new poll would be superfluous.
The original border poll was the first plebiscite in the history of the United Kingdom.A report almost two years later recorded there was only public interest in the poll in the week before it took place. When first mooted, in 1973 however, the idea had been that they would take place every 10 years.
The SDLP boycotted the poll and said the result only proved the obvious: that there was a unionist majority in Northern Ireland. In the event, the result in March showed 591, 820 people saying they wanted NI to remain as part of the UK and just 6.463 saying they would opt for NI to be joined with the Republic outside the UK.
A report into the poll, commissioned by Secretary of State William Whitelaw and co-authored by Queen’s University political analyst Sydney Elliott, concluded that pro-unionists were pleased with their turnout “and anti-partionists were equally pleased with their boycott”. The report said while several estimates and guesses were made about the extent of deliberate abstention, it could not be measured.
HOW AHERN HOLDS THE KEY
The Irish Government would appear to have all but a veto on the go-ahead for a new border poll. London is unlikely to give its approval without, at the very least, Irish acquiescence, which appears unlikely. The argument runs that a poll on the same day as the Assembly elections could boost Ulster Unionist prospects by ensuring a high turnout – although it is a case that remains unproved.
One danger, however, is it could also seriously disadvantage the SDLP in its all-or-nothing battle with Sinn Fein, by turning Irish unity into the central focus of the election.”They would be stuffed,” one Government source said, “if they aren’t stuffed already.” Which leaves David Trimble who first mooted the idea back in March with something of an uphill task over the next few months in persuading not only Tony Blair but Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
And the Dublin Premier didn’t mince his words, warning a poll would make a “difficult situation appalling” because the result would be a foregone conclusion – in favour of the Union. The effect would be to feed into the election “in a dangerous way” at a time when the emphasis should be on calming things down.
And since his rejection, according to a Northern Ireland Office source: “The real politik of the situation is that London will not go ahead without Dublin, and there is no evidence that Dublin is warming to the idea.”It is simply inconceivable that we would call a border poll without Irish agreement.”
The issue came up when DUP leader Ian Paisley and other senior party figures met Mr Blair in London last week and were told the Government had not come to any decision. Publicly and privately the position remains the same. But should Dr Reid reject the idea, Mr Trimble can still argue he has in effect achieved the same outcome, since a clause in the Good Friday Agreement binds Dr Reid to call a border poll if he believes there may be a majority in favour of a united Ireland. Thus rejection equates to an official Government judgment that the Union is secure.
Ostensibly, however, Mr Trimble remains “quietly confident” the Government will accede to an actual plebiscite. Certainly the Government has some form in the past in being seen to help the UU leader out and after falling well short of his demands over increased sanctions against Sinn Fein may feel it might have the ‘even keel’ effect they often go for. “The fact is,” one senior UU man said, “they owe us one.”
Yet not even all of Mr Trimble’s lieutenants are on board. Some senior Ulster Unionists – both pro and anti-Agreement – view the poll as one way of warming up their ‘cold house’.
UU Assembly member Esmond Birnie believes it would put speculation over the forthcoming Population Census and the balance between Protestants and Catholics to one side, by concentrating attention on a vote for or against Northern Ireland within the UK. “It would also give us an opportunity to scotch the myth being put across by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness that somehow the working class in Northern Ireland, and particularly the Protestant working class, would benefit from being part of the Republic rather than the UK.”
Leading Agreement sceptic David Burnside also supports his leader’s idea. He said: “The unionist population has become very disillusioned and I believe it would be supported by the pro-Union Catholic people.” It may not, however, be as simple as that. The latest Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey on political attitudes showed a marked fall in Catholic support for the Union since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement.
Only 15% of Catholics now believe the continuation of the Union is the best long-term option and in fact only 50% of respondents overall support the long-term policy of remaining as part of the United Kingdom.
Sinn Fein’s Francie Molloy said: “What at one staged seemed to some a distant aspiration – and was interpreted by others as support for the armed struggle – is now a potential political reality.”
He said even a border poll next year would show significant change, with increased support for a united Ireland, but argued Trimble’s aim is to put the next poll, as required in the Agreement, another seven years away
Mr Birnie also said there had been both euphoric and horrific speculation about the results of the forthcoming 2001 Population Census which would show the Protestant/ Catholic demographic balance. “I am confident that any such poll would show a continuing substantial majority for the status quo. With such a result achieved then we could get on with the necessary business of practical politics and getting devolution to work to the benefit of all the people of Northern Ireland,” he added.
SDLP leader Mark Durkan recently said the important element for any referendum on constitutional status was that it takes part in the context of assurances that the institutions of the Agreement are safe. “It’s important that the referendum be conducted in circumstances where people take the Agreement and all its features and protections as givens,” he said.
The DUP, for its part, is not against a Border poll but sees no reason why it should not be held virtually right away.
Ian Paisley Jnr, who attended last week’s talks with Mr Blair and Secretary of State John Reid, said: “They kicked for touch on it, essentially. They don’t seem to have come to any conclusion. “If it is going to be done it would be a cynical move by the Government to try to prop up David Trimble. If a border poll is such a crucial issue we should have it immediately.”
Publication Date: 07 August 2002 By Noel McAdam, Political Correspondent
